The moderation in job losses, despite a stunning 9.4% unemployment rate, is sure to fuel more inflation fears as hopes of an economic turnaround mount. And some Federal Reserve policy makers, after establishing a policy of low interest rates and an expanding balance sheet, aren’t letting the concerns sit idle.

The latest: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in an interview with Market News that the central bank must be “anticipatory” and shouldn’t wait too long to tighten monetary policy. While rising bond yields were part of the economy’s “normalization,” he said other causes — such as the deficit and inflation concerns — couldn’t be ignored.
The comment could be interpreted as fairly innocuous. Fed officials are well aware of claims that rates were too low for too long earlier this decade, encouraging the housing boom.
But earlier this week, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig went much further in warning of “significant” inflationary pressures. “The markets won’t be fooled by artificially low rates for long,” Mr. Hoenig said in a Wyoming speech. “I suggest strongly that we need to be alert to the markets’ message and begin in earnest to bring monetary policy into better balance before inflation forces our hand.”
There are plenty of reasons to think inflation concerns are overblown. But we doubt Mr. Hoenig is alone among his colleagues in wanting to respond to markets’ messages sooner rather than later.
Could this be the return of Ben Bernanke vs. the regional hawks? Rewind to a year ago: Skyrocketing oil prices were aggravating inflation angst among some of the more hawkish regional bank presidents. Mr. Bernanke decided financial conditions were too fragile, so the central bank kept rates on hold (and eventually lowered them further). Within months inflation expectations plummeted as the financial system nearly crashed.
Some investors at the time complained about confusing central bank communications. The same complaints emerged in the fall of 2007 when financial markets began showing strains and the Fed started lowering rates. A lack of unity among independent-minded central bank officials may just be what you get at turning points in the economy.
Mr. Lockhart has suggested that the Fed eventually could start raising rates — he says it’s not time yet — while maintaining an expansionary policy through other programs. The Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent policy statement said the federal funds rate is likely to remain at “exceptionally low levels … for an extended period.” The FOMC may soon be discussing what constitutes an extended period.

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Hints of Hawkishness in Fight on Inflation Fears
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